2021 Winter Package

THIS IS NOT THE MOST RECENT VERSION AVAILABLE. LINK TO THE MOST RECENT VERSION.

KEY CONCEPTS

• This year’s Winter Package looks at local and national trends in winter average temperatures and winter days above normal since 1970.

• Four key points to highlight when discussing climate change and the winter season in the U.S.:

  • The winter season isn’t as cold as it used to be 50 years ago.

  • Since 1970, winter is the fastest-warming season for the majority of the U.S.

  • There can still be cold winters under climate change.

  • Warming winters can have negative impacts on our health and regional economies.

The first day of meteorological winter (December 1st) is next week. In preparation for the chilly season, we’ve updated our annual Winter Package. This year’s installment includes data and graphics for:

• Average Winter Temperatures since 1970 (local trends and a national map)

• Winter Days Above Normal since 1970 (local trends)

Discussing the warming winter season can be confusing. Here are four important concepts to highlight when discussing climate change and the winter season:

1. The winter season isn’t as cold as it used to be 50 years ago.
   Using 52 years (1970-2021) of winter temperature data in 246 locations across the U.S, our analysis shows:

   • About 98% (241) locations had an increase in their average winter temperatures since 1970, with 84% (202 of 241) of those locations warming by 2°F or more. 

   • Winter warming is greatest in the Great Lakes and Northeast region. The five greatest increases are seen in Burlington, Vt. (7.2°F), Concord, N.H. (6°F), Milwaukee (6°F), Chattanooga, Tenn. (5.8°F), and Green Bay, Wis. (5.8°F). 

   • About 74% (183) of the locations had at least 7 more days above the 1991-2020 winter normal temperatures since 1970.

2. Since 1970, winter is the fastest-warming season for most of the U.S. All seasons are feeling the effect of climate change but a Climate Central analysis shows that, over the past 50 years, average temperatures increased more in winter than in any other season for 38 out of 49 states (excluding Hawaii). 

3. There can still be cold winters under climate change. The likelihood of extreme cold conditions in a warming world is decreasing but it is not zero. Some locations will still experience extreme cold or cold records—just not as cold or for as long as in the past.

   • Although a majority of the U.S. has experienced an increase in winter temperatures, some northern states, including the Dakotas and Montana, have had colder winter temperatures since 1970.

   • Some extreme cold spells occur when polar air spills south. Whether or how climate change may be linked with extreme winter weather in the mid-latitudes of the U.S., such as the February 2021 cold wave in Texas, is still an active area of research.

4. Warming winters may sound great at first, but they can have negative impacts on our health and regional economies.

   • Migrating pests: Disease-carrying insects such as mosquitoes and ticks can migrate to regions that were previously too cold to inhabit. 

   • Less snow and ice for winter sports: The multi-billion dollar winter recreation industry, which includes skiing, ice fishing, and snowmobiling, could take an economic hit because of rising temperatures and less snow/ice accumulation. 

   • Water supply risk: Warmer winters can lead to declining snowpacks in the West—a necessary source of meltwater that helps refill reservoir levels and irrigate crops in the spring.

   • Lower fruit yields: Cherry, apple, and peach trees require a minimum number of winter chill hours before they can develop fruit in the subsequent spring and summer months. With the warming winter trends, this chill period is decreasing and could eventually limit fruit development.

POTENTIAL LOCAL STORY ANGLES

What’s the snow forecast in your area? 
The National Weather Service (NWS) has a Winter Weather Desk, which provides twice-daily updated forecasts for snow, freezing rain, and other wintry conditions around the country. You can find local information from your nearby NWS office here, and you can also see snow reports at specific ski resorts here. 

How is climate change impacting winter activities near you?
For more general information on climate change and the snow sports industry, check out Climate Central’s On Thin Ice report, the Protect Our Winters website, or NOAA’s Climate and Skiing report. For more region specific data, the National Ski Areas Association (NSAA) has a list of different industry statistics to analyze.

LOCAL EXPERTS 

The SciLine service, 500 Women Scientists or the press offices of local universities may be able to connect you with local scientists who have expertise on the warming winter season. The American Association of State Climatologists is a professional scientific organization composed of all 50 state climatologists. 

NATIONAL EXPERTS 

• Amy Butler, PhD, Research Scientist
  Chemistry & Climate Processes, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  Contact: Amy.Butler@noaa.gov

• Elizabeth Burakowsi, PhD, Research Assistant Professor
  Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and Space, University of New Hampshire
  Expertise: Winter sports industry
  Contact: elizabeth.burakowski@unh.edu

METHODOLOGY

Average temperatures and days above normal were calculated for each winter (December, January, February) from 1969-70 to 2020-21 using data obtained from the Applied Climate Information System. Winter days above normal are defined as the number of days where the average temperature was above the 1991-2020 NOAA/NCEI climate normal. Climate Central's local analyses include 247 stations. However, for data summaries based on linear trends, only 246 stations are included due to large data gaps in Wheeling, W.Va.